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发现
- 去找1在我们的样本中，44%的房主在重置时经历了混合ARM支付的大幅下降, which on average represented over 5 percent of their monthly income.
- 去找2在抵押贷款支付预期下降之前，房主的支出增加了9%，在调整后增加了15%, despite a considerable drop in housing wealth.
- 去找3房主使用信用卡贷款为其重置前预期支出增长的21%提供资金, and post–reset they further increased their revolving balances. Over the full two year period, their total spending increase exceeded their mortgage-related savings by 4 percent.
- 去找4房主利用较低的混合ARM支付节省下来的钱，在所有支出类别中进行更多的购买, notably home improvements and healthcare.
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2017年4月
大衰退将货币政策如何在微观经济层面发挥作用的许多悬而未决的问题带到了前台, 值得注意的是，联邦基金目标利率的变化如何影响个人家庭的个人消费. 不足为奇的是, 这个问题很难回答，因为融资产品种类繁多，市场环境也在不断变化, 以及缺乏长期以来将融资条件与家庭消费结合起来的数据. In this new 澳博官方网站app 研究所 report, 我们以持有对利率变化特别敏感的特定类型抵押贷款的房主为样本，以一种创新的方式告知这个问题.
我们研究了一组美国房主如何改变他们的信用卡支出，以应对美联储(fed)在大衰退(Great Recession)后实施的低利率政策所导致的抵押贷款支付下降. 使用一个去识别的大通客户样本，这些客户拥有混合可调利率抵押贷款(ARMs)和大通信用卡, 我们分析信用卡消费的变化和循环平衡导致前后抵押贷款重置.
找到一个: 在我们的样本中，44%的房主在重置时经历了混合ARM支付的大幅下降, which on average represented over 5 percent of their monthly income.
在我们的样本中，44%拥有稳定分期偿还时间表的抵押贷款的房主在重置后平均每月节省747美元. Against their average monthly income of $13,834, this savings was equivalent to an income boost of over 5 percent.
Housing wealth declined for this group: between origination and reset, the median home value for this cohort dropped by nearly $84,000 (25%).
发现二: 在抵押贷款支付预期下降之前，房主的支出增加了9%，在调整后增加了15%, despite a considerable drop in housing wealth.
Over the 12 months preceding ARM reset, 与基准月(重置前的12个月)相比，信用卡支出平均增加了9%(每月289美元)。. 重要的是, this spending occurred prior to any decrease in mortgage payment, and thus was an anticipatory response. Over the 12 months after reset, 与基准月相比，消费平均增加了15%(每月488美元).
These homeowners increased their spending despite a nearly $84,000 (25%) drop in their median home value and associated rise in loan-to-value ratio, 这表明，住房财富的减少和随之而来的家庭杠杆率的上升，并没有阻止他们增加支出，以应对收入的增加.
发现三: 房主使用信用卡贷款为其重置前预期支出增长的21%提供资金, and post–reset they further increased their revolving balances. Over the full two year period, their total spending increase exceeded their mortgage-related savings by 4 percent.
发现四: 房主利用较低的混合ARM支付节省下来的钱，在所有支出类别中进行更多的购买, notably home improvements and healthcare.
In both the pre-reset and post-reset periods, 各项支出均有所增加，可自由支配支出增幅超过非自由支配支出增幅.
Within discretionary purchases, spending on home improvements increased the most. 这是特别值得注意的，因为它代表了在资产损失25%的价值之后对杠杆资产的投资增加.
Within non-discretionary purchases, spending on healthcare increased substantially but only in the post-reset period, suggesting homeowners postponed healthcare expenditures until the income increase materialized.
Data
From a universe of over 6 million 追逐 mortgage customers, we created a sample of 4,321 de-identified homeowners who met the following five sampling criteria:
结论
Monetary policy affects the economy through many channels, and the effectiveness of each channel varies in easing and tightening cycles. 在本报告中，我们衡量了货币政策的收入渠道对具有特定类型可变利率抵押贷款的房主的消费的影响. We find that in a declining interest rate environment, the income channel is automatic, the consumer response is considerable, and that there are both anticipatory and contemporaneous increases in consumption. 将我们的研究结果放在更广泛的背景下，即通过抵押贷款影响个人消费的货币政策传导渠道, 我们的研究表明，再融资渠道存在缺陷，限制了它对房主的影响:传统的利率政策很难激活它, has frictions that reduce its bandwidth, and has uneven distributional effects.
重要的是, 影响固定利率抵押贷款与可变利率抵押贷款比例的住房政策，将部分决定受再融资渠道与收入渠道影响的房主比例，因此也将影响货币政策的总体有效性. 像这样, 当住房政策制定者评估影响借款人选择哪种抵押贷款类型(固定利率或可变利率)的政策时, 他们应该考虑这些政策对货币政策在商业周期中影响个人消费的能力所产生的影响.
